Odds Format
Stake Strategy
Results Summary
Final Bankroll Distribution
Sample Bankroll Paths
What this simulator does
An average hides the swings. Two people can use the same approach for a whole season and finish in completely different places, purely because of the order the results happened to come in. This simulator plays out your season thousands of times with random results, so you can see the full range of what might happen, not just the average.
You set a win rate, the typical odds, your starting pot, the number of bets and how you size your stakes. The simulator shows the typical (median) finish, the chance of ending up ahead, the chance of losing everything, and the spread from bad seasons to good ones.
Compare flat stakes with percentage stakes and you’ll see how much stake size changes the risk.
Step by step
How it works
For each simulated season:
Across all seasons:
Everything runs in your browser using random numbers, so two runs never match exactly. The results show what could plausibly happen, not a forecast.
Worked examples
These figures come from 10,000 simulated seasons. Your own runs will vary slightly.
Win rate 53% at an average of 1.95, a $1,000 pot, 500 bets at $20 each.
Even with a real edge, roughly one season in five still ends in a loss. The worst 5% of seasons finish below $600.
Same inputs, but each stake is 2% of the current pot.
Stakes shrink as the pot falls, so you can’t go bust in the strict sense. Winning runs compound, which widens the range of outcomes.
Lower the win rate to 50% at 1.95, which is roughly what the bookmaker’s margin leaves an average bettor with.
The same simulator also shows how common long losing runs are. At a 53% win rate, close to half of all 500-bet seasons include a run of at least 8 straight defeats.
Questions people ask
QHow many simulations should I run?
1,000 gives a rough picture and 10,000 gives a stable one. Beyond about 50,000, the numbers barely change.
QWhy are the median and average different?
A few very lucky seasons drag the average upwards. The median, the season in the middle, is closer to what a typical season looks like.
QCan I mix different odds and win rates?
Not in this version. It uses one win rate and one typical price for every bet. Averages still give a useful picture of the risk.
QWhat counts as ruin?
A season where the pot reaches zero. With flat stakes that happens when losses run deeper than the pot. With percentage stakes it practically can’t, but the pot can still shrink a long way.
QWhy do I get slightly different numbers each time?
Every run uses fresh random results. The more seasons you simulate, the smaller the difference between runs.
