Home Expected Goals
Away Expected Goals
Max Goals (per team)
Match Outcome
Over / Under Goals
Both Teams to Score
Score Probability Matrix
What this calculator does
Goals in football are rare and fairly random, which makes the Poisson distribution a good fit for them. Give it the number of goals each team is expected to score, and it works out how likely each team is to score 0, 1, 2, 3 or more.
The calculator combines the two teams into a grid of every scoreline, from 0-0 to 5-5, each with its own probability. It adds the cells together to price the markets fans talk about most: home/draw/away, over/under goals, and both teams to score.
It’s the same basic idea behind many football prediction models, in a form you can try with your own numbers.
Step by step
The maths behind it
Chance of a team scoring exactly k goals:
lambda is that team’s expected goals, e is about 2.71828, and k! is k factorial (3! = 3 x 2 x 1).
Chance of a particular scoreline:
Adding up the cells:
The model assumes the two teams score independently of each other. Real matches aren’t quite like that: a red card or an early goal changes how both sides play. Treat the output as a solid baseline, not the final word.
Worked examples
Home 1.55 xG, away 1.15 xG. The model gives over 2.5 goals a 50.6% chance. A bookmaker offers 2.10, which implies 47.6%.
Same match. The most likely single score is 1-1 at 12.0%, with 1-0 next at 10.4% and 2-1 at 9.3%. A 1-1 price of 6.00 implies 16.7%, which is shorter than the model’s view. A 2-1 price of 12.00 implies 8.3%, a little longer than the model’s 9.3%.
A strong home side at 1.90 xG against a weak attack at 0.65. Home win = 67.2%, and BTTS No = 59.4%. If BTTS No is offered at 1.80 (implied 55.6%):
Questions people ask
QWhere can I find expected goals?
Many football stats sites publish xG for the top leagues. Without xG, a simple version works too: average the home side’s goals scored at home with the away side’s goals conceded away, over their last 10 games. You’ll find the raw results on each team’s page on LiveScores24x7.
QWhy doesn't the grid add up to exactly 100%?
It stops at a maximum number of goals per team. The small chance of 6 or more goals sits outside the grid. With the default of 5, more than 99% of outcomes are covered.
QDoes it account for injuries or red cards?
Only through the numbers you enter. If a key striker is out, lower that team’s expected goals before you run the model.
QWhy do real matches end 0-0 or 1-1 more often than predicted?
Teams that are level late on often settle for the draw, so low-scoring draws happen a little more often than pure Poisson suggests. More advanced models add a correction for this.
QDoes it work for other sports?
It suits low-scoring sports where scores come one at a time, like ice hockey. It’s a poor fit for high-scoring sports such as basketball.
