Newcastle vs Aston Villa
J. Manzambi
36'
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Newcastle
Aston Villa
|
Probability %
1
x
2
40%
26%
34%
|
Pred
X
|
Avg. Goal
3.17
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Newcastle
Aston Villa
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
39%
61%
|
Pred
Over
|
Avg. Goal
3.17
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Newcastle
Aston Villa
|
HТ/FT Probability %
23%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Newcastle
Aston Villa
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
63%
37%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
3.17
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Newcastle
Aston Villa
|
Probability %
55%
|
Pred
Home +0
|
Avg. Goal
3.17
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
Double chance : Newcastle or draw
Newcastle come into this one in rough form, having lost their last three matches, including a heavy defeat just days ago. Their only recent bright spot was a win and a draw earlier in the season, but things have gone downhill since then. Aston Villa, on the other hand, are in better shape overall, with three wins in their last five, though they were also on the wrong end of a lopsided scoreline very recently.
When these two meet, the games have often been one-sided, with plenty of goals in several of the recent meetings. This time, it looks like a close one that could go either way, but Newcastle’s recent struggles make it hard to see them winning. A draw seems like a fair outcome, though Villa have the edge in current form. Based on the overall picture, Newcastle may avoid defeat, but a draw is the most likely result.
Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026 12:05 PMÂ
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Substitutes for Newcastle 
B. Toure
' Out: M. Fernandez-Pardo
56
W. Osula
' Out: J. Willock
56
D. Burn
90' Out: Joelinton
90
Substitutes for Aston Villa
J. McGinn
45' Out: Alysson
45
L. Goretzka
' Out: E. Buendia
72
R. Barkley
72' Out: Joao Gomes
72
I. Mbaye
72' Out: J. Manzambi
72
P. Torres
' Out: A. Wan-Bissaka
77
REFEREE
J. Gillett
STADIUM
St. James’ Park
LOCATION
Newcastle upon Tyne
- Newcastle host Aston Villa at St. James' Park in the Premier League 2026-2027.
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Aston Villa (W1 D1).
- Aston Villa have won 8 of the last 12 head-to-head encounters.
- Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions (W1).
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but lost 6-0 in their most recent outing.
- Newcastle average 1.44 goals per game, while Aston Villa average 1.35.
- Both sides have near-identical shot averages: Newcastle 13.02, Villa 12.73 per match.
- Aston Villa edge possession stats with 49.95% compared to Newcastle's 47.85%.
- Prediction model gives Newcastle 35% win chance, draw 35%, and Aston Villa 30%.
- Recommended bet: Double Chance – Newcastle or Draw, priced at 1.42 with Betano.
- Poisson distribution strongly favours Newcastle at 66% versus Aston Villa's 34%.
- Defensive comparison favours Aston Villa, who rate 61% against Newcastle's 39%.
5/
2/
6
WINS
DRAWS
WINS
Newcastle
0
–
1
Aston Villa
Newcastle
0
–
2
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
0
–
0
Newcastle
Aston Villa
4
–
1
Newcastle
Newcastle
3
–
0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
1
–
3
Newcastle
Newcastle
5
–
1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
3
–
0
Newcastle
Newcastle
4
–
0
Aston Villa
Newcastle
1
–
0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
2
–
0
Newcastle
Newcastle
1
–
1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
2
–
0
Newcastle
Total
Per Match
63
Corners
61
177
Fouls
152
33
Offsides
21
176
Shots
156
53
Shots on Goal
56
32
Yellow Cards
27
0
Red Cards
2
18
Goals
17
17
Goals Conceded
18
4
Clean Sheets
6
Last matches for NEW 
Premier League 2026-2027
17 OCT, 2026
Newcastle
0
Aston Villa
1
L
Premier League 2026-2027
12 OCT, 2026
Newcastle
1
Coventry
4
L
Premier League 2026-2027
19 SEP, 2026
Newcastle
2
Hull City
1
W
Premier League 2026-2027
14 SEP, 2026
Newcastle
1
Leeds
4
L
Premier League 2026-2027
05 SEP, 2026
Newcastle
2
Bournemouth
2
D
Premier League 2026-2027
29 AUG, 2026
Newcastle
2
Tottenham
0
W
Premier League 2026-2027
23 AUG, 2026
Newcastle
2
Liverpool
2
D
Premier League 2025-2026
24 MAY, 2026
Newcastle
0
Fulham
2
L
Premier League 2025-2026
17 MAY, 2026
Newcastle
3
West Ham
1
W
Premier League 2025-2026
10 MAY, 2026
Newcastle
1
Nottingham Forest
1
D
Last matches for AST
Premier League 2026-2027
17 OCT, 2026
Aston Villa
1
Newcastle
0
W
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
14 OCT, 2026
Aston Villa
6
Fenerbahçe
0
W
Premier League 2026-2027
10 OCT, 2026
Aston Villa
2
Brentford
2
D
Premier League 2026-2027
19 SEP, 2026
Aston Villa
3
Tottenham
2
W
Premier League 2026-2027
12 SEP, 2026
Aston Villa
1
Nottingham Forest
2
L
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
08 SEP, 2026
Aston Villa
3
Club Brugge KV
2
W
Premier League 2026-2027
05 SEP, 2026
Aston Villa
0
Hull City
0
D
Premier League 2026-2027
31 AUG, 2026
Aston Villa
0
Arsenal
1
L
Premier League 2026-2027
23 AUG, 2026
Aston Villa
0
Brighton
4
L
Premier League 2025-2026
15 MAY, 2026
Aston Villa
4
Liverpool
2
W
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
2.44
1xBet
3.78
1xBet
2.94
1xBet
98.57 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
2.44
3.78
2.94
98.57%
Pinnacle
2.42
3.70
2.90
97.25%
Bet365
2.40
3.60
2.75
94.51%
Marathonbet
2.38
3.68
2.86
96.01%
William Hill
2.30
3.50
2.80
92.80%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.92
Pinnacle
2.55
Pinnacle
3.36
Pinnacle
96.88 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
2.92
2.55
3.36
96.88%
Marathonbet
2.84
2.30
3.34
92.06%
1xBet
Bonus
2.84
2.30
3.34
92.06%
Bet365
2.75
2.40
3.25
91.91%
William Hill
2.62
2.45
3.10
89.89%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.57
Marathonbet
2.76
Marathonbet
3.10
William Hill
93.11 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Marathonbet
2.57
2.76
2.97
91.90%
1xBet
Bonus
2.57
2.76
2.97
91.90%
William Hill
2.50
2.60
3.10
90.32%
Bet365
2.50
2.62
2.88
88.58%
