Form and context

Roma come into this Champions League fixture after a 2-0 win over Genoa in all competitions, though that followed a dramatic 3-4 home defeat to Real Madrid in which they led 3-1 before conceding three late goals from corners. Slovan Bratislava's recent run in all competitions includes a 0-3 home loss to VfB Stuttgart and a 6-1 defeat at Paris Saint Germain. There is no head-to-head history between the sides.

Team news

• AS Roma: Donyell Malen is suspended following his red card against Como, while Paulo Dybala and Manu Koné picked up injuries against Real Madrid and join Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante on the treatment table. Dybala is on track to be called up and on the bench, with a final decision expected on the eve of the match; Cristante, who has knee inflammation, is also targeting a return.
• Slovan Bratislava: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Roma average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Slovan average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• The prediction model gives the home side 10%, the draw 45% and the away side 45%.
• In the form comparison, Roma are rated at 13% and Slovan at 88%.

Our view

Roma's injury and suspension list is long, and Gasperini has spoken about needing more from his squad. Slovan's recent results in all competitions have been heavy, but the model's split between draw and away win suggests a tight contest rather than a clear home edge.

Most likely outcome: draw – the model rates draw and away win equally at 45%, with Roma's absences weighing against their stronger defensive numbers.