Form and context

Stuttgart come into this Champions League tie after a 1-0 defeat at Hamburger SV on 17 October, though they had won their two previous matches in all competitions, 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava and 2-0 at SC Paderborn 07. Atletico Madrid are in strong form, winning all five of their most recent matches in all competitions, including a 1-0 league win at Espanyol on 17 October and a 2-0 Champions League victory over Manchester United. There is no head-to-head history between the sides in the data.

Team news

• VfB Stuttgart: No confirmed team news yet.
• Atletico Madrid: Cristian Romero will miss the trip to Stuttgart with a minor adductor problem, with reports estimating an absence of around 10 to 12 days; one report says he is expected to be out for a maximum of 10 days. He will also miss the weekend league game against Deportivo, with the club not expected to rush his return.

What the numbers say

• Stuttgart average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Atletico average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• The prediction model gives Stuttgart a 50% share and the draw 50%, with Atletico at 0%.
• Form, attacking and defensive comparisons all favour Stuttgart at 67% to 33%.

Our view

Atletico arrive with the better recent run of results, but they must cope without Romero in central defence. Stuttgart's home advantage and their stronger model ratings keep this one finely balanced, and the numbers point to a tight contest.

Most likely outcome: draw – the model splits the home and draw shares evenly, and Atletico's defensive reshuffle adds uncertainty.