Form and context

Monza were beaten 3-1 at Lazio last time out in all competitions and are looking to pull away from the relegation zone. Cagliari arrive in excellent form, having taken ten points from their last four matches, most recently a draw with Juventus, and sit fourth in the table. The visitors are also on a run of four consecutive away wins in Serie A.

Team news

• Monza: Lucchesi is suspended, and Juric is managing several injuries in defence and midfield. Varela is described as the only certainty in attack, with Dany Mota and Robinson possible options.
• Cagliari: Coach Pisacane is suspended and will not be on the touchline. Yael Trepy followed an individual training programme.

What the numbers say

• Monza have scored in all 8 official matches of the 2026/27 season, with 13 goals in total.
• Cagliari have conceded the fewest goals in Serie A (3, level with Roma).
• Cagliari have the highest chance conversion rate in the league at 57.14%.
• In the head-to-head, Cagliari won the most recent meeting 3-0 and also won 2-1 at Monza in January 2025; Monza's last win was 1-0 in March 2024.

Our view

Cagliari's defensive record and away run make them the stronger side on current evidence, while Monza's injury and suspension issues add to the difficulty of bouncing back from the Lazio defeat. Monza have found the net consistently this season, so a clean sheet for the visitors is far from certain.

Most likely outcome: away win – Cagliari's four straight away wins and league-best defensive numbers outweigh Monza's scoring record.