Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.
T. Silvero
85'
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
|
Probability %
1
x
2
54%
27%
20%
|
Pred
1
|
Avg. Goal
2.48
|
Score Pred.
3-0
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
55%
45%
|
Pred
Under
|
Avg. Goal
2.48
|
Score Pred.
3-0
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
|
HТ/FT Probability %
31%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
3-0
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
48%
52%
|
Pred
No
|
Avg. Goal
2.48
|
Score Pred.
3-0
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
|
Probability %
54%
|
Pred
Home -0.5
|
Avg. Goal
2.48
|
Score Pred.
3-0
|
Double chance : Velez Sarsfield or draw
Velez Sarsfield are going through a rough patch and haven't won any of their last five matches, losing three and drawing two. Gimnasia M. are struggling even more, with four defeats in their last five games, including a heavy loss and a narrow one. The only recent meeting between these two ended with a lot of goals, so this match could be open and entertaining.
The match looks close, but Velez Sarsfield seem the stronger side at the moment and are more likely to get a win or at least avoid defeat. Gimnasia M. are in poor form and may find it hard to get a result here, so a draw or a narrow home win seems the most likely outcome.
Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026 07:21 PM
Substitutes for Velez Sarsfield 
T. Aguirre
' Out: J. Policella
79
D. Valdés
79' Out:
79
87' Out: M. Lanzini
87
D. Godoy
' Out:
90
Luca Feler
' Out: L. Robertone
90
Substitutes for Gimnasia M.
N. Barboza
' Out: E. Fernández
45
B. Armoa
' Out: L. Cingolani
70
Santiago Rodríguez
' Out: Matías Vargas
70
M. Ubeda
82' Out: F. Antonini
82
I. Sabatini
' Out: D. Mondino
88
REFEREE
D. Herrera
STADIUM
Estadio José Amalfitani
LOCATION
Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
- Vélez Sarsfield are winless in their last five matches (2 draws, 3 defeats).
- Gimnasia M. are also without a win in five, losing three and drawing two.
- The most recent meeting ended 3-2 in favour of Gimnasia M. back in April 2026.
- Vélez are the stronger attacking threat in this fixture, averaging 1.19 goals per game compared to Gimnasia's 1.09.
- Vélez also edge the possession battle, averaging 54.81% compared to Gimnasia's 47.33%.
- Both sides have a yellow card median of 2, suggesting a fairly disciplined encounter.
- The prediction model gives Vélez a 45% chance of winning and the draw another 45%, leaving Gimnasia just 10%.
- The recommended bet is Double Chance - Vélez Sarsfield or Draw, priced at 1.21 with Betano.
- Form comparison heavily favours Vélez, who rate at 62% versus Gimnasia's 38%.
- The head-to-head comparison is the only metric favouring Gimnasia completely, at 100%.
- The Poisson distribution model gives Vélez a 71% edge over Gimnasia's 29%.
- Overall, the model rates Vélez at 58.6% to Gimnasia's 41.4% across all categories.
1/
0/
1
WINS
DRAWS
WINS
Total
Per Match
12
Corners
6
21
Fouls
23
5
Offsides
2
29
Shots
27
8
Shots on Goal
11
6
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goals
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
1
Clean Sheets
0
Last matches for VEL 
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
17 OCT, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Gimnasia M.
0
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
12 OCT, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
0
Lanus
2
L
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
05 OCT, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
2
Platense
2
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
21 SEP, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
3
Tigre
2
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
11 SEP, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Newells Old Boys
1
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
06 SEP, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Estudiantes L.P.
0
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
29 AUG, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Deportivo Riestra
1
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
23 AUG, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
2
River Plate
2
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
17 AUG, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Defensa Y Justicia
1
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
08 AUG, 2026
Velez Sarsfield
1
Boca Juniors
1
D
Last matches for GIM
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
17 OCT, 2026
Gimnasia M.
0
Velez Sarsfield
1
L
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
12 OCT, 2026
Gimnasia M.
1
Newells Old Boys
0
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
05 OCT, 2026
Gimnasia M.
0
Estudiantes L.P.
3
L
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
19 SEP, 2026
Gimnasia M.
0
Deportivo Riestra
0
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
11 SEP, 2026
Gimnasia M.
0
Defensa Y Justicia
2
L
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
05 SEP, 2026
Gimnasia M.
2
Boca Juniors
2
D
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
30 AUG, 2026
Gimnasia M.
3
Independiente
0
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
22 AUG, 2026
Gimnasia M.
3
Gimnasia L.P.
2
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
18 AUG, 2026
Gimnasia M.
3
Talleres Cordoba
1
W
Liga Profesional Argentina 2026-2027
01 AUG, 2026
Gimnasia M.
2
Union Santa Fe
0
W
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
1.80
1xBet
3.63
Pinnacle
4.93
Pinnacle
96.72 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
1.80
3.50
4.75
95.08%
Pinnacle
1.79
3.63
4.93
96.43%
Marathonbet
1.76
3.42
4.65
92.97%
William Hill
1.75
3.30
4.60
91.59%
Bet365
1.75
3.60
4.75
94.36%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.42
Pinnacle
2.24
Pinnacle
5.55
Pinnacle
96.17 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
2.42
2.24
5.55
96.17%
Marathonbet
2.39
2.02
5.25
90.58%
1xBet
Bonus
2.39
2.02
5.25
90.58%
Bet365
2.38
2.20
5.00
93.05%
William Hill
2.30
2.05
5.00
89.08%
HIGHEST ODDS
2.20
William Hill
2.42
Marathonbet
4.80
William Hill
92.93 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
William Hill
2.20
2.20
4.80
89.49%
Bet365
2.10
2.38
4.50
89.40%
Marathonbet
2.10
2.42
4.65
90.54%
1xBet
Bonus
2.10
2.42
4.65
90.54%
