Form and context

NAC Breda host Heracles at the Rat Verlegh Stadion with the visitors described as the league leaders. NAC have won their last two in all competitions, beating Helmond Sport 0-2 and MVV 1-0, while Heracles arrive off a 1-5 win at MVV and a 3-0 home win over Waalwijk. Heracles have the stronger recent scoring record, averaging 3.2 goals per game across their last 10 in all competitions.

Team news

• NAC Breda: Kamal Sowah was absent from Monday training, and it is unclear whether he will be available against Heracles. Rio Hillen and Mohamed Nassoh trained separately, with Hillen leaving early. Jan Van den Bergh is still recovering from a groin injury and Paul Gladon ended the final drill early after a recent setback. Mats Seuntjens is making progress in his recovery from a knee injury and worked individually with the ball.
• Heracles: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• NAC average 2 goals for and 1.8 against across their last 10 in all competitions; Heracles average 3.2 for and 1 against.
• NAC have won three of the last six head to head meetings, Heracles have won three, and one was drawn.
• The most recent meeting ended Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda, with NAC Breda named as the winner.
• The prediction model gives the draw and the away win 45% each, with a home win at 10%.

Our view

Heracles carry the better attacking numbers into this one, but NAC have won the last two meetings between the sides and will want to protect that record at home. NAC's training-ground concerns add uncertainty to their selection, though several of those players have not yet been ruled out.

Most likely outcome: draw - the model rates a draw and an away win equally, and the head to head record is evenly split.