Form and context

OH Leuven come into this Jupiler Pro League fixture after a 1-1 draw at Union St. Gilloise on 11 October, a result that followed a 2-0 win over RAAL La Louvière. Lommel United lost their Limburg derby at STVV earlier this week, a defeat central defender Timothy Eyoma said left deep marks on the squad.

Team news

• OH Leuven: No confirmed team news yet.
• Lommel United: Timothy Eyoma said everyone has trained sharply again to be ready for OH Leuven and hopes the team will be focused after the derby defeat. He described the defence as having to shuffle regularly because of injuries.

What the numbers say

• OH Leuven's last five in all competitions read: a 1-1 draw at Union St. Gilloise, a 2-0 win over RAAL La Louvière, a 1-1 draw with Cercle Brugge, a 3-0 loss at SK Beveren and a 1-0 loss at Gent.
• Lommel United's last five in all competitions include a 3-1 win at SK Beveren, a 0-0 draw with KV Mechelen, a 5-0 loss at Union St. Gilloise, a 0-1 loss to Club Brugge KV and a 1-0 win at Cercle Brugge.
• Across the matches counted, OH Leuven average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded; Lommel United average 1.2 scored and 1.1 conceded.
• The prediction model gives the home side 45% and the draw 45%, with the away win at 10%.

Our view

OH Leuven have been hard to beat in recent league outings, while Lommel United are still recovering from a painful derby loss and a defence that has been forced to change through injuries. The model sees little separating a home win and a draw, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.

Most likely outcome: draw - the model rates the draw and a home win equally at 45%, and Lommel's recent away form in all competitions is mixed.