Form and context

Werder Bremen host 1899 Hoffenheim on Saturday after a 3-2 DFB-Pokal exit at Borussia Dortmund, having also won 3-2 at FSV Mainz 05 in all competitions. Hoffenheim were knocked out of the cup by second-division Holstein Kiel, though they had beaten Bayer Leverkusen and Lyon before that. Werder have not won a home league game against Hoffenheim since 2014, and the visitors won the last four Bundesliga meetings in Bremen.

Team news

• Werder Bremen: Niclas Füllkrug returns to the starting XI after his double off the bench in Dortmund. Justin Njinmah is back in the squad after a thigh muscle injury but is only an option for around half an hour. Olivier Deman is doubtful with a tendon problem in his foot and will be assessed after Friday training. Paul Erevbenagie is injured and unavailable, while Felix Agu, Jens Stage, Salim Musah, Skelly Alvero, Niklas Stark, Moussa Ndiaye and Keke Topp remain out.
• 1899 Hoffenheim: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Werder average 2.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Hoffenheim average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded over the same span, with a 3-0 win over Leverkusen and a 3-0 win over Lyon among their recent results.
• Hoffenheim have won six of the last eight head to head meetings, including the most recent one 1-0.
• The model gives the draw and the away win 45% each, with a home win at 10%.

Our view

Werder carry attacking momentum through Füllkrug, but the home record against Hoffenheim is a heavy burden and the squad is stretched by absences. Hoffenheim arrive after a cup setback but with strong recent league and European wins behind them. A tight game looks likely, with the visitors slightly better placed on the head to head record.

Most likely outcome: draw - the model rates it level with an away win, and Hoffenheim's edge in this fixture is offset by their cup exit.