Form and context

AD Ceuta FC travel to Sa Pobla for their first Copa del Rey tie of the season, a single-leg first round match at the Municipal de Sa Pobla on Wednesday. The visitors sit two categories above their hosts, who play in Group 3 of Segunda Federación. Ceuta arrive after a 3-1 league defeat at Cadiz on Sunday, their fourth loss in five matches in all competitions.

Team news

• Poblense: Coached by Julián Robles, who replaced Óscar Troya in the summer. The squad is young, with an average age of 24. No confirmed team news yet.
• AD Ceuta FC: Coach José Juan Romero is expected to rotate and give minutes to players who have featured less, with the squad training against the clock after returning from Cadiz on Sunday night. No confirmed absences have been reported.

What the numbers say

• Poblense are unbeaten in their last three league games, taking seven points from nine, and have won their last three at home.
• Poblense sit tenth with ten points from eight games (three wins, one draw, four defeats), scoring eight and conceding ten.
• Ceuta have lost four of their last five in all competitions, including 3-1 at Cadiz, 1-2 to Oviedo and 1-2 to Sabadell.
• Ceuta's recent form in all competitions shows an average of 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across their last ten matches.

Our view

Ceuta's poor run and the likelihood of a rotated side give Poblense real hope, especially with the hosts unbeaten in three and strong at home. The gap in level still favours the visitors, but the Copa is known for upsets and Ceuta will need to be sharp.

Most likely outcome: away win - Ceuta's two-category advantage should tell, even with changes.