Form and context

Santos come into the Vila Belmiro clash unbeaten in their last two in all competitions, following a 1-1 draw with Bahia with a 2-1 win at Fluminense. Palmeiras have won three of their last five in all competitions, including a 2-0 home victory over RB Bragantino on 24 October. The visitors' defensive record stands out: they have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals per game across their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Team news

• Santos: Neymar is suspended after his red card against Bahia, and Cuca has indicated Christian Oliva is the favourite to come in, with Gabriel Bontempo pushed forward alongside Philippe Coutinho and Everton Cebolinha behind Gabigol. Escobar is in the final stages of recovery from a thigh muscle injury and could feature, while Willian Arão is a doubt. Gabriel Brazão, Vinicius Lira and Lucas Veríssimo remain out, and Arthur is being handled with caution.
• Palmeiras: Ramón Sosa has a muscle injury in his right thigh and is set to miss out. Vitor Roque has returned to training with the group as he completes recovery from an ankle sprain and is a doubt. Paulinho remains in treatment and is unlikely to be available. Piquerez and Andreas Pereira return from suspension, and there are no suspended players for this game.

What the numbers say

• Palmeiras have won four of the last eight head-to-head meetings, Santos two, with two draws; the most recent, in May 2026, ended 1-1.
• Santos average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded across their last 10 in all competitions; Palmeiras average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.
• The prediction model gives Palmeiras 45% and the draw 45%, with Santos at 10%.
• Palmeiras hold the edge in the defensive comparison at 88% to 13%.

Our view

Santos must reshuffle without their captain and may sit deeper, which could make chances hard to come by against a Palmeiras side that has been stingy at the back. Palmeiras have their own attacking questions with Sosa out and Roque and Paulinho uncertain, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.

Most likely outcome: draw - both sides carry significant attacking absences and the model rates the draw as high as an away win.