Form and context

Avellino host Padova at the Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi on Saturday, with the visitors looking to respond after a defeat to Virtus Entella last time out. Avellino drew their most recent match against Cesena and are currently seventh in the Serie B table. Padova have lost their last two in all competitions, going down to Virtus Entella and Carrarese.

Team news

• Avellino: Alessandro Nesta is expected to keep the same shape used against Sampdoria and Cesena, with Venturi tipped to start in central defence alongside Izzo and Enrici, and Russo and Cheddira up front. Cancellotti is still training separately but could return to the squad, while Simic left a session early after a knock to his left ankle, though it is not thought to be serious. Besaggio is one booking away from suspension.
• Padova: Kevin Lasagna is out with a lesion to the left thigh biceps femoris, with no recovery times set yet. Gianluca Caprari is also unavailable for this game but the club hope to have him back for the midweek fixture against Südtirol. Seghetti is expected to partner Artistico in attack.

What the numbers say

• Avellino have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Padova have averaged 1.1 scored and 1.4 conceded.
• Avellino are unbeaten in their last two against Padova, winning 1-0 in March 2026 and drawing 2-2 in September 2025.
• Padova have lost their last two matches in all competitions, conceding twice in each.
• The model gives Avellino a 45% chance of victory, the draw 45% and Padova 10%.

Our view

Avellino come in with the steadier recent results and a settled attacking pair, while Padova must cope without Lasagna and Caprari and are chasing a response after two straight defeats. The hosts look the more comfortable side going into this one.

Most likely outcome: home win - Avellino's recent form and Padova's attacking absences point that way.