Form and context

OFI come into this Europa League tie on a difficult run in all competitions, having lost their last three: 4-3 at Kalamata, 2-1 at Rennes and 3-0 at AEK Athens FC. Their most recent bright moment was a 2-0 home win over 1899 Hoffenheim on 17 September. Bayer Leverkusen arrive in strong form in all competitions, with wins over SC Freiburg (2-1), Lech Poznan (4-0), FSV Mainz 05 (4-3), RB Leipzig (2-0) and Celje (2-0) in their last five.

Team news

• OFI: No confirmed team news yet.
• Bayer Leverkusen: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• OFI average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Bayer Leverkusen average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• There are no head-to-head matches between the two clubs in the data.
• The prediction model gives OFI 35%, a draw 35% and Bayer Leverkusen 30%.

Our view

OFI's recent league and European results have been poor, and they face an opponent scoring at nearly twice their rate over the last 10 matches in all competitions. Leverkusen's defensive record of one goal conceded per game on average adds to the challenge for the hosts. The model still leans slightly towards OFI or a draw, but the form lines point the other way.

Most likely outcome: away win - Leverkusen's scoring rate and five-match winning run in all competitions outweigh OFI's recent struggles.