Form and context

St Johnstone host Dundee at McDiarmid Park on Saturday in the Tayside derby. The hosts are unbeaten in their last two in all competitions, drawing 2-2 with Kilmarnock and 2-2 with Motherwell, but that run followed a 4-0 defeat at Rangers. Dundee are fifth in the Premiership and have lost just one of their past five games despite a lengthy injury list.

Team news

• ST Johnstone: Steward is suspended, while winger Kai Kotheringham returns from a ban. Defender Morgan Boyes is out after picking up an injury in training. Unax Alvarez has yet to make his debut and is still not back in training with a calf problem, though he is expected to return after the next international break. Danny Schmidt played on with an ankle injury described as in a "horrible state".
• Dundee: Owen Bevan and Ryan Finnigan are back available as the injury situation eases. Captain Simon Murray is sidelined with an ACL injury expected to keep him out for the rest of the season.

What the numbers say

• St Johnstone have averaged 1.1 goals for and 1.5 against across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Dundee have averaged 1.7 goals for and 1.2 against across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Dundee won the most recent meeting between the sides 2-0 at St Johnstone in May 2025; the September 2026 clash ended 1-1.
• The prediction model gives the draw and the away win 45% each, with a home win at 10%.

Our view

Dundee arrive in better shape and with the stronger recent record, while St Johnstone are missing defensive options and managing fitness concerns. The visitors' edge in attacking numbers points to them taking something from the derby.

Most likely outcome: away win - Dundee's better form and goal output outweigh St Johnstone's home advantage.