Form and context

Holstein Kiel sit at the bottom of the 2. Bundesliga table and are three points behind Dynamo Dresden on the same goal difference. Kiel have not lost at home this season but have not won there either, with four draws in four home games. Dresden have taken four points from their last two league matches, a 1:1 at VfL Osnabrück and a 2:0 win over 1. FC Magdeburg.

Team news

• Holstein Kiel: Lasse Rosenboom is injured. Noah Madsen, who started the last three games, says the team has had a very good training week and wants three points on Sunday.
• Dynamo Dresden: Niklas Hauptmann is out due to load management, and Thomas Keller is still sidelined with ongoing symptoms after a concussion. Brooklyn Ezeh and Alexander Rossipal are absent through illness, and Friedrich Müller is away with the Germany U20 side. Lennart Grill has started the last two games in goal in place of Tim Schreiber.

What the numbers say

• Kiel's last five in all competitions: 0-0 Hertha BSC, 0-1 at Eintracht Braunschweig, 1-1 VfL Osnabrück, 0-1 at 1. FC Heidenheim, 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg. They average 1.0 goals for and 1.3 against across 10 matches.
• Dresden's last five in all competitions: 2-0 1. FC Magdeburg, 1-1 at VfL Osnabrück, 1-2 Hertha BSC, 2-2 at Eintracht Braunschweig, 1-2 VfL Bochum. They average 1.9 goals for and 1.6 against across 10 matches.
• Dresden have won only one of eleven previous visits to Kiel in the 2., 3. and Regionalliga, collecting four points in total, with the sole win a 2:1 on 24 October 2015.
• Dresden have covered 990.97 kilometres this season, and only SV Darmstadt 98 have sprinted less.

Our view

Kiel are hard to beat at home but have drawn all four home games, while Dresden arrive with confidence from the Magdeburg win. Dresden's poor record at the Holstein-Stadion and the absence of Hauptmann and Keller balance that out. Expect a tight game between two sides who like to keep the ball.

Most likely outcome: draw - Kiel's four home draws and Dresden's long wait for a win in Kiel point to a share of the points.