Form and context

Both sides arrive in the Champions League league phase without a point from two matches, so this meeting at the Pierre-Mauroy already carries weight. Lille sit 34th of 36 after a 2-3 home defeat to Real Betis and a 0-3 loss at Arsenal, while Galatasaray are second-to-last following defeats to Sporting (1-3) and Barcelona (1-4). In all competitions, Lille drew 1-1 with Stade Brestois 29 last time out, and Galatasaray won 1-0 at Genclerbirligi.

Team news

• Lille: Davide Ancelotti will have to do without Igamane, Ethan Mbappé, Santos and Ueda. The likely starting eleven announced is Ozer - Goffi, Ngoy, Alexsandro, Perraud - Mukau, Bentaleb, André - Bakwa, Giroud, Haraldsson.
• Galatasaray: Rafael Leao suffered a groin strain against Genclerbirligi and his exact condition will be determined after further examinations. Victor Osimhen has returned from a groin injury but is still building form, and he did not score or assist against Genclerbirligi. The club has reportedly raised concerns about security conditions around the trip to France.

What the numbers say

• Lille have averaged 1.2 goals for and 1.3 against across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Galatasaray average 1.9 for and 1.8 against.
• Galatasaray's recent all-competitions run includes a 4-0 defeat at Trabzonspor and a 1-4 home loss to Barcelona.
• Lille's last five in all competitions read: 1-1 Brest, 0-3 Arsenal, 1-0 Le Havre, 1-2 Nice, 2-0 Troyes.
• There is no head-to-head history in the data, and the prediction model splits the contest almost evenly at 33% each.

Our view

Lille's European position is poor, but they are at home against a Galatasaray side dealing with injury questions around Leao and Osimhen's sharpness. The Turkish club's recent heavy defeats suggest they can be exposed defensively.

Most likely outcome: home win - home advantage and Galatasaray's unsettled attacking options tilt it Lille's way.