Form and context

Marseille come into this one after a 1-0 defeat at Sturm Graz in all competitions, but they had won 5-2 at Angers in their previous league outing. Le Havre lost 3-1 at home to Auxerre in all competitions last time out and have taken just one point from their last five matches across all competitions.

Team news

• Marseille: No confirmed team news yet. The kick-off time is still in doubt: the LFP has proposed moving the match from 17:15 to 20:45, and Marseille have not yet given their approval. Bruno Genesio said a 20:45 start would not be a problem for his side's preparation, but raised concern for supporters who planned around the original time.
• Le Havre: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Marseille have won all six of the listed head-to-head meetings, including a 6-2 victory in the most recent home fixture between the sides.
• Marseille average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Le Havre average 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded over the same span.
• The prediction model gives Marseille 45% and the draw 45%, with Le Havre at 10%.
• Marseille's head-to-head record in the model comparison is 100% in their favour.

Our view

Marseille's recent league form and a dominant head-to-head record point their way, though the Sturm Graz loss shows they are not immune to a slip. Le Havre's low scoring rate makes an upset look unlikely, but the model's high draw share keeps that possibility open.

Most likely outcome: home win - Marseille have won every listed meeting between the clubs.