Form and context

Recreativo Huelva host Rayo Vallecano at the Nuevo Colombino in the Copa del Rey, with a large crowd expected after free-sale tickets sold out and season-ticket seats were released on Thursday. Rayo arrive on a poor run in all competitions, having lost 0-3 at home to Elche on 24 October and 4-1 at Real Madrid in September. The JSON shows no head-to-head record between the clubs.

Team news

• Recreativo Huelva: No confirmed team news yet. A special bus service will run from Zafra to the stadium, starting an hour and a half before kick-off, with return services on lines 1, 2 and 8 after the match.
• Rayo Vallecano: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Rayo's last five in all competitions: 0-3 loss to Elche, 1-1 at Getafe, 1-1 at Osasuna, 2-1 win over Espanyol and a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid.
• Across the matches counted, Rayo average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game.
• Rayo have won just one of their last five in all competitions.
• The prediction model splits this match evenly: 33% home win, 33% draw, 33% away win.

Our view

Rayo's recent defensive record is a concern, with 2.1 goals conceded per game across the counted matches, and a cup trip to a packed Nuevo Colombino is a tricky assignment. Recreativo have no recent form listed in the data, so their level is hard to judge, but the occasion and the sold-out home support should lift them.

Most likely outcome: draw - the model gives all three outcomes equal weight, and Rayo's run of one win in five suggests a tight, low-margin cup tie.