Form and context

AC Milan host Bologna at San Siro on Wednesday in the ninth round of Serie A, with Rúben Amorim's side on 18 points after their win at Udinese. Milan have won three of their last five in all competitions, including a 2-0 victory at Udinese on 25 October, while Bologna beat Cagliari 2-0 on 24 October. Milan have won five of the last eight head-to-head meetings, with Bologna winning one and two ending level.

Team news

• AC Milan: Eight players are set to miss out through injury: Saelemaekers, P. Terracciano, Gabbia, Chukwueze, Gila, Moreira, Rabiot and Loftus-Cheek. Loftus-Cheek picked up a muscle problem at Udinese, and Gila, Rabiot and Moreira are unlikely to recover in time, with the derby against Inter the target. Luka Modric is expected to be rested for this midweek game.
• Bologna: Orsolini is out with a right femoral biceps injury, expected back in the second half of November, and Piccoli has a similar injury with a return set for late November; Holm is sidelined long term. Enem is doubtful with an Achilles tendon problem.

What the numbers say

• Milan average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Bologna average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded across their last 10 in all competitions.
• Milan have won five of the last eight head-to-heads, with Bologna winning one and two drawn.
• The prediction model gives Milan 45%, the draw 45% and Bologna 10%.

Our view

Milan are short of options, with eight injury absences and Modric expected to sit out, so the home side may look close to the XI that won at Udinese. Bologna are also without key attackers in Orsolini and Piccoli, which limits their threat. Milan's recent record in this fixture and their stronger attacking numbers point to the hosts edging it.

Most likely outcome: home win - Milan's head-to-head dominance and superior scoring rate outweigh their injury concerns.