Form and context

Sparta Rotterdam have won just one of their last five in all competitions, a 3-2 home win over Willem II on 17 October, and they have conceded 2.5 goals per game across their last ten. Ajax arrive after a 2-0 win over Atalanta in all competitions on 22 October and a 5-2 league win at Groningen, averaging 3.1 goals scored per game over their last ten. The head-to-head record leans heavily towards Ajax, who have won five of the last eight meetings, with three draws.

Team news

• Sparta Rotterdam: No confirmed team news yet.
• Ajax: Oleksandr Zinchenko is training with Ajax as he works through the final phase of his recovery from a cruciate ligament injury suffered last season, but the club have no plans to offer him a new contract. Ajax believe they already have enough left-backs in Caio Henrique, Owen Wijndal, Jofre Torrents and potentially Youri Baas.

What the numbers say

• Sparta have scored 1.8 and conceded 2.5 goals per game across their last ten matches in all competitions.
• Ajax have scored 3.1 and conceded 1.5 goals per game across their last ten matches in all competitions.
• In the last eight head-to-head meetings, Ajax have won five, three ended as draws and Sparta have not won.
• The prediction model gives the draw 50% and an away win 50%, with a home win at 0%.

Our view

Sparta's recent defensive record is a concern against an Ajax side scoring freely, and the history between the clubs points the same way. Ajax's win over Atalanta shows they are in reasonable rhythm, though the short turnaround from Thursday's match is worth noting. Sparta's best hope lies in the draws that have appeared in this fixture, but the balance of form favours the visitors.

Most likely outcome: away win - Ajax's scoring rate and dominant head-to-head record outweigh Sparta's home advantage.