Form and context

Third hosts first on Sunday, with only one point separating SC Freiburg and Bayern München at the top of the Bundesliga. Freiburg lost their midweek international fixture, while Bayern drew 2-2 with Arsenal in the Champions League. Freiburg have won just one of the last 21 meetings between the clubs, with the last four all going to Bayern (5:13 goals).

Team news

• SC Freiburg: Florent Muslija, Bruno Ogbus and Berkay Yilmaz are out through injury, and Julian Schuster has no suspensions to deal with. Vincenzo Grifo says the side want to go into the game "with a broad chest".
• Bayern München: Luis Díaz is injured and set to miss several weeks, while Joshua Kimmich (bereavement), Manuel Neuer and Jamal Musiala are also unavailable. Michael Olise returns after his Champions League suspension.

What the numbers say

• Freiburg have averaged 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Bayern have averaged 3.6 and 1.1.
• Freiburg have kept no clean sheet in their last 27 meetings with Bayern.
• Harry Kane has 16 goals for club and country this season and has scored in each of his last three meetings with Freiburg.
• Freiburg's defence is the third best in the league, but it now faces the best attack in Germany.

Our view

Bayern arrive with a long unbeaten record in this fixture and the stronger attacking numbers, but the absences of Díaz, Kimmich, Neuer and Musiala give Freiburg real encouragement. Freiburg's home record and solid defence should keep this close, though the head-to-head history weighs heavily on the visitors' side.

Most likely outcome: away win - Bayern's dominant recent record against Freiburg outweighs their injury concerns.