Form and context

Bolton return to the Toughsheet Community Stadium after a strong week on the road, having beaten Wolves 3-1 and drawn 0-0 at Southampton in all competitions. Middlesbrough come into Friday night's game unbeaten in their last five in all competitions, including a 3-2 win at Stoke City and a 2-2 home draw with Cardiff City. More than 25,000 tickets have been sold for the fixture.

Team news

• Bolton: Luca Stephenson returned from two months out with a thigh tear and played the full 90 minutes at Southampton. Jayden Nelson left Bolton's academy game against Wigan with an apparent leg injury and was later seen on crutches. No confirmed team news yet on his availability for Friday.
• Middlesbrough: Tommy Conway has recovered from injury and played the full 90 minutes against Cardiff. Will Lankshear was rested from the start against Cardiff and came on at half-time to score the equaliser. Neto Borges has started nine of Boro's 11 Championship games this season.

What the numbers say

• Bolton have kept three clean sheets in their last 11 games, against Southampton, QPR and Cardiff.
• Middlesbrough have averaged 1.9 goals per game across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Bolton have averaged 1.3 goals per game across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Middlesbrough's Will Lankshear is the Championship's current top scorer.

Our view

Bolton's recent defensive record gives them a platform, but Middlesbrough arrive with more attacking output and a habit of pressing for late goals away from home. Steven Schumacher has called on a packed home crowd to make the difference, and the atmosphere should be lively with over 25,000 sold.

Most likely outcome: draw - Bolton's clean-sheet run and home support point to a tight game, while Boro's scoring form makes a share of the points the balanced call.