Dundee vs Kilmarnock

Dundee
l w w d l
3 - 1
2.28
xG
2.24
Full Time
Kilmarnock
w d l w l
J. Bevan
32'
Ashley Hay
83'
Ashley Hay
90'+4'
J. Hugill
75'
Predictions
Stats
Odds
Predictions
Probability %
1 x 2
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Dundee Dundee
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Probability %
1 x 2
51%
25%
25%
Pred
1
Avg. Goal
3.07
Score Pred.
3-0
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Dundee Dundee
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Probability %
Under / Over 2.5
41%
59%
Pred
Over
Avg. Goal
3.07
Score Pred.
3-0
HТ/FT Probability % HT Pred. FT Pred. Score Pred.
Dundee Dundee
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
HТ/FT Probability %
29%
HT Pred.
1
FT Pred.
1
Score Pred.
3-0
Probability %
Yes/ No
Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Dundee Dundee
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Probability %
Yes/ No
60%
40%
Pred
Yes
Avg. Goal
3.07
Score Pred.
3-0
Probability % Pred. Avg. Goal Score Pred.
Dundee Dundee
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Probability %
55%
Pred
Away -0.75
Avg. Goal
3.07
Score Pred.
3-0

Double chance : Dundee or draw

Form and context

Dundee host Kilmarnock at Dens Park on Wednesday after a 2-1 defeat at St Mirren, a result that has prompted questions about how Steven Pressley's side respond. The Dark Blues have been solid defensively this season but conceded two poor goals in Paisley. Kilmarnock arrive struggling and conceding goals, according to the same report.

Team news

  • Dundee: No confirmed team news yet.
  • Kilmarnock: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

  • Dundee's last five in all competitions: a 2-1 loss at St Mirren, a 2-2 draw with Rangers, a 2-1 win at Falkirk, a 2-1 win over Motherwell and a 2-1 loss at Hearts.
  • Kilmarnock's last five in all competitions: a 3-0 loss at Falkirk, a 3-2 win over Motherwell, a 3-1 loss at Rangers, a 1-1 draw with Hearts and a 1-0 win at Hibernian.
  • Across the last 10 matches counted, Dundee average 1.4 goals for and 1.2 against; Kilmarnock average 1.0 for and 2.3 against.
  • The last meeting ended Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee, with Kilmarnock the winner; the previous two were a draw and a Dundee win.

Our view

Dundee have shown better defensive numbers than Kilmarnock over the recent run, and the home side's reaction to the St Mirren setback is the central theme of this fixture. Kilmarnock's recent away form in all competitions includes heavy defeats, which makes a home result the more plausible reading.

Most likely outcome: home win - Dundee's stronger recent defensive record and the home setting point that way.

Last Updated: 26 Oct 2026 08:42 PM
starting lineups
 
O. Goodman
 
I. Samuels
 
R. Astley
 
Joe Wright
 
D. Wright
 
Alan Forrest
 
E. Hamilton
 
C. Jones
7.67
 
J. Bevan
 
B. Fink
9.07
 
Ashley Hay
 
N. Mantl
 
R. Deas
6.18
 
George Stanger
5.87
 
C. McCarthy
 
J. Brandon
 
M. Schjonning-Larsen
 
Aaron Tshibola
 
T. Lowery
 
G. Kiltie
6.33
 
J. Hugill
 
T. John-Jules
field field
substitutes
Substitutes for Dundee
C. Reilly
60' Out: J. Bevan
60
J. Westley
' Out: B. Fink
65
M. Akinmboni
' Out: Joe Wright
66
Žan Bešir
' Out: C. Jones
78
Substitutes for Kilmarnock
M. Kamara
' Out: R. Deas
70
Ieuan Owen
' Out: G. Kiltie
76
J. Meier
' Out: J. Brandon
76
D. Daniels
89' Out: C. McCarthy
89
statistics
46 Ball Possession 54
3 Goals 1
2.28 Expected Goals 2.24
match facts

STADIUM

The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

LOCATION

Dundee

  • Dundee host Kilmarnock in the Premiership 2026-2027 on 28 October 2026.
  • Kilmarnock have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the sides.
  • Six of the last twelve H2H encounters ended level, including four 2-2 draws.
  • Dundee are without a win in their last two matches, losing 2-1 most recently.
  • Kilmarnock have lost three straight, conceding three goals in each of those defeats.
  • Kilmarnock's only win in their last five came away from home (1-0).
  • Dundee average 1.26 goals per game compared to Kilmarnock's 1.08 this season.
  • Kilmarnock average more shots per game (11.72) than Dundee (10.63).
  • Possession stats are closely matched, with Kilmarnock edging it at 44.5% to 43.0%.
  • Prediction model gives Dundee a 45% win chance and the draw 45%, with Kilmarnock at just 10%.
  • The recommended bet is Double Chance: Dundee or Draw, priced at 1.30 with William Hill.
  • Model comparison favours Dundee strongly in H2H (62%) and Poisson distribution (70%).
Last Updated: 26 Oct 2026 08:42 PM
head to head team stats
Total
Per Match
65 Corners 81
169 Fouls 191
20 Offsides 12
170 Shots 209
56 Shots on Goal 63
27 Yellow Cards 39
2 Red Cards 2
27 Goals 25
25 Goals Conceded 27
1 Clean Sheets 1
premiership standings
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
#5
11
5
2
4
4
17
#11
12
2
3
7
-15
9
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half

HIGHEST ODDS

1.92
Pinnacle
3.95
Pinnacle
3.90
Bet365
97.05 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle Pinnacle Logo
1.92
3.95
3.84
96.67%
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
1.87
3.70
3.70
93.00%
Bet365 Bet365 Logo
1.85
3.60
3.90
93.05%

HIGHEST ODDS

2.44
Pinnacle
2.52
Pinnacle
4.32
Pinnacle
96.33 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle Pinnacle Logo
2.44
2.52
4.32
96.33%
Bet365 Bet365 Logo
2.40
2.40
4.00
92.31%
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
2.38
2.28
4.10
90.69%

HIGHEST ODDS

2.20
Bet365
2.72
Marathonbet
3.66
Marathonbet
91.29 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Bet365 Bet365 Logo
2.20
2.62
3.60
89.77%
Marathonbet Marathonbet Logo
2.15
2.72
3.66
90.42%