Form and context

VfL Bochum go into this DFB Pokal tie at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion after a 1-1 draw with VfL Wolfsburg in all competitions, a result that followed three straight defeats. The second-tier side are clear underdogs against Bundesliga opposition, but the club sees the cup as a chance to build confidence and a win would also bring in 912,755 euros. Mainz have had a mixed run in all competitions, beating Schalke 0-1 but losing 2-3 to Werder Bremen in their most recent outing.

Team news

• VfL Bochum: Playmaker Berkan Taz, who had his best game of the season against Wolfsburg, says the team want to progress and believes it is possible. Sean Klaiber, scorer of the goal against Wolfsburg, stressed the need to be well prepared and give everything. Head coach Uwe Rösler is under pressure after a poor run, and the cup tie could ease the mood around his position.
• FSV Mainz 05: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Bochum have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Mainz have averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Mainz have won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings, with one draw and one Bochum win.
• The prediction model gives a home win only 10%, with the draw and away win both at 45%.

Our view

Bochum's recent scoring output is modest and they face a Mainz side that has been finding the net regularly, even in defeat. The head-to-head record points strongly one way, and the model reflects that. Bochum's cup motivation is real, but the gap in level and form looks significant.

Most likely outcome: away win - Mainz's scoring rate and dominant head-to-head record outweigh Bochum's home advantage.