Form and context

Lecce return to the Via del Mare after a 3-0 win at Udinese in all competitions, though their recent run also includes a 1-2 home loss to Bologna and a 3-0 defeat at AC Milan. Juventus drew 2-2 with Rennes in the Europa League on Thursday, days after a 0-3 home loss to Lazio in all competitions.

Team news

• Lecce: Eusebio Di Francesco is without midfielders Berisha, Ilic and Coulibaly, and Santiago Pierotti is out long term with a compound fracture of the medial malleolus of his right ankle. The expected 4-3-3 has Falcone in goal, Kaba in midfield and Geubbels up front.
• Juventus: Zeki Celik (left hamstring) and Nico Gonzalez (right soleus) both have low-grade muscle injuries and have started rehabilitation. Kenan Yildiz, Khephren Thuram, Manuel Locatelli, Francisco Conceicao, Jeff Ekhator and Kamil Grabara are also unavailable. One source says Nico Gonzalez is in the probable XI, which conflicts with the club's injury confirmation.

What the numbers say

• Lecce average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Juventus average 1.8 and 1.1.
• Juventus have won five of the last eight head-to-head meetings, with two draws and one Lecce win not recorded in that run.
• The prediction model gives the draw 45% and an away win 45%, with a home win at 10%.

Our view

Lecce have the healthier squad and home advantage, but Juventus have dominated this fixture historically and still carry more attacking quality despite a crowded treatment room. The visitors' midweek European outing could be a factor in the closing stages.

Most likely outcome: draw - Juventus are depleted and short of rest, while Lecce's recent home form is mixed.