Form and context

Lecce come into this one after a heavy 5-1 defeat at Frosinone in all competitions, having also lost 0-2 to Juventus and 1-2 to Bologna at home in recent weeks. Genoa are in much better shape, with back-to-back wins over Venezia and Juventus, and De Rossi says his side arrive from two victories but will not ease off. The Genoa coach also described Lecce as a team with one point fewer than his own, calling it a delicate match.

Team news

• Lecce: Willem Geubbels has a low-grade lesion to the adductor of his right thigh and will be out for a couple of weeks, returning after the international break. Ilic is absent, Berisha, Coulibaly and N'Dri are on personalised training, and Pierotti and Geubbels were rested.
• Genoa: De Rossi confirmed Osmajic, Vasquez and Ostigard will all start. Ellertsson, who came off injured against Juventus with an ankle problem, is doubtful and will be assessed; De Rossi said it is nothing serious and they will test him in training. Mitaj is in line to replace him on the left.

What the numbers say

• Genoa have won their last two in all competitions, including 2-0 against Juventus, while Lecce have lost three of their last four in all competitions.
• Genoa have lost all three away games so far and are still without an away point, which De Rossi called extra motivation.
• Lecce average 1 goal scored and 2.1 conceded across their last 10 matches; Genoa average 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.
• In the last six head-to-head meetings, Lecce won twice, Genoa won twice and two were drawn.

Our view

Genoa look the stronger side on current form, but their poor away record and Ellertsson's fitness doubt keep this open. Lecce's recent defensive numbers are a concern, though they have had the better of some recent meetings with Genoa.

Most likely outcome: draw - Genoa's momentum meets their winless away run, and the head-to-head record is evenly split.