Form and context

Modena sit alone in second place in Serie B and host Mantova, another side near the top of the table, in an interregional derby at the Stadio Alberto Braglia. Modena have won four of their last five in all competitions, including a 2-1 win at Vicenza on 27 October, while Mantova lost 0-2 at home to Cremonese on the same evening after a 1-0 win at Virtus Entella.

Team news

• Modena: Giuseppe Caso suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury in his right knee at Vicenza and will need surgery. Daniel Tonoli has a grade 2 tear of the semimembranosus muscle in his left thigh and has started conservative treatment. Francesco Zampano will undergo tests in the coming days after his injury at Vicenza, and Stenio Zanetti continues rehabilitation on a rectus femoris injury.
• Mantova: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Modena average 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions; Mantova average 1.6 and 1.5.
• Modena have won both recent head-to-head meetings: 2-1 on 21 March 2026 and 3-1 at Mantova on 20 September 2025.
• The prediction model gives Modena 45% and the draw 45%, with Mantova at 10%.
• Modena's form comparison reads 63% against Mantova's 37%.

Our view

Modena are the stronger side on recent results and head-to-head record, but the loss of Caso is a significant blow to their attacking options. Mantova arrive after a heavy home defeat, yet they remain among the teams near the top of the table.

Most likely outcome: home win - Modena's recent form and two straight wins over Mantova point their way.