Form and context

Benevento go into this Serie B fixture at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito on a strong run in all competitions, having won 3-0 at Arezzo on 24 October and taken four wins from their last five listed matches. Catanzaro's recent form in all competitions is much shakier, with a 1-6 home defeat to Ascoli on 24 October standing out. The two clubs have no head-to-head record in the data.

Team news

• Benevento: Pierozzi will miss the Catanzaro game after picking up a physical problem in the win at Arezzo, where he was replaced late by Romano; Floro Flores said it looks like a matter of a few weeks. Defender Saio, who watched the Arezzo match from the bench, will be assessed before Tuesday's kick-off. The squad stayed in Tuscany to train before moving to a training camp at Venticano, with a session on Monday and the final warm-up on Tuesday.
• Catanzaro: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Benevento average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across the last 10 matches counted.
• Catanzaro average 1.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over the same span.
• The prediction model gives Benevento 50% and the draw 50%, with 0% for an away win.
• Form comparison in the model leans heavily to Benevento at 71% against 29%.

Our view

Benevento arrive with momentum and a settled recent scoring record, while Catanzaro are conceding heavily and come off a damaging home loss. The main question for the hosts is how they cover Pierozzi's absence and whether Saio is passed fit, both of which remain open until closer to kick-off.

Most likely outcome: home win - Benevento's superior recent form in all competitions and Catanzaro's defensive record point that way.