Manchester United vs Bournemouth
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United
Bournemouth
|
Probability %
1
x
2
40%
28%
32%
|
Pred
X
|
Avg. Goal
2.8
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United
Bournemouth
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
47%
53%
|
Pred
Over
|
Avg. Goal
2.8
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United
Bournemouth
|
HТ/FT Probability %
23%
|
HT Pred.
1
|
FT Pred.
1
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United
Bournemouth
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
59%
41%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
2.8
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United
Bournemouth
|
Probability %
56%
|
Pred
Home +0
|
Avg. Goal
2.8
|
Score Pred.
2-1
|
Double chance : Manchester United or draw
Form and context
Manchester United are under heavy pressure, having won only once in seven Premier League games this season and going into Sunday on a seven-match winless run in all competitions. Their midweek Champions League trip ended in a 4-1 defeat at Como, while Bournemouth arrive on a three-match winning streak, including a 3-0 Europa League win over AC Milan.
Team news
- Manchester United: Leny Yoro is available again after suspension and Ayden Heaven is back with the group after illness. Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw, Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu, Manuel Ugarte and Tom Heaton are in the treatment room, while Lisandro Martinez, Marcus Rashford and Heaven are listed as doubts. One report says Mainoo is still about a week away from returning.
- Bournemouth: Junior Kroupi is set to be involved for the first time this season after a foot injury, with Marco Rose planning to give him some minutes. Julian Araujo is out with a thigh problem, Alex Scott is out with a muscle issue and Veljko Milosavljevic is a doubt.
What the numbers say
- United's last five in all competitions: 1-4 at Como, 1-1 at Leeds, 0-2 at Atletico Madrid, 1-1 with Tottenham and 1-1 at Fulham.
- Bournemouth's last five in all competitions include three straight wins: 3-0 over AC Milan, 2-0 over Sunderland and 3-0 over Sturm Graz, plus a 5-1 loss at Chelsea.
- United average 1.7 goals for and 1.7 against across their last 10; Bournemouth average 2.0 for and 1.2 against.
- The last five head-to-head meetings produced four draws, including 2-2 in March 2026 and 4-4 in December 2025, with Bournemouth winning the other 3-0.
Our view
United need a response in front of their own fans, but their recent results and the number of absentees make this a difficult fixture. Bournemouth are in better rhythm and have shown they can score freely, though the quick turnaround after Thursday's European game is a concern.
Most likely outcome: draw - the head-to-head record is full of stalemates and Bournemouth's momentum is offset by the short recovery time.
Last Updated: 23 Oct 2026 02:31 PM
Substitutes for Manchester United
Substitutes for Bournemouth REFEREE
J. Gillett
STADIUM
Old Trafford
LOCATION
Manchester
- Manchester United host Bournemouth at Old Trafford in the Premier League 2026-2027.
- The last three meetings between these sides all ended in draws, including a 4-4 thriller and two 2-2 scorelines.
- Bournemouth have won three of the last seven head-to-heads, all by a 0-3 scoreline away from home.
- Manchester United are winless in their last five matches, with two draws and three defeats.
- Bournemouth have lost four of their last five, conceding three or more goals in three of those defeats.
- United average 1.40 goals per game this season, compared to Bournemouth's 1.14.
- United also edge the shot count with 14.41 per game versus Bournemouth's 13.50.
- Possession leans toward the hosts, with United averaging 52.83% against Bournemouth's 46.27%.
- Median match stats show United dominating with 19 shots and 56% possession to Bournemouth's 12 and 44%.
- The prediction model gives Manchester United a 45% win chance and the draw 45%, with Bournemouth at just 10%.
- The Poisson distribution strongly favours United at 73% versus Bournemouth's 27%.
- Recommended bet is a Double Chance on Manchester United or draw, priced at 1.36 with Betano.
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
Premier League 2025-2026
Manchester United
Premier League 2025-2026
Bournemouth
Premier League 2024-2025
Manchester United
Premier League 2024-2025
Bournemouth
Premier League 2023-2024
Manchester United
Premier League 2023-2024
Bournemouth
Premier League 2022-2023
Manchester United
Premier League 2022-2023
Bournemouth
Last matches for MAN
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
0
Bournemouth
3
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Manchester United
1
Como
4
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
1
Leeds
1
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Manchester United
0
Atletico Madrid
2
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
1
Tottenham
1
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
1
Fulham
1
League Cup 2026-2027
Manchester United
2
Brighton
3
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
0
Manchester City
1
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Manchester United
4
Sabah FA
0
Premier League 2026-2027
Manchester United
2
Everton
2
Last matches for BOU
League Cup 2026-2027
Bournemouth
3
Aston Villa
0
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
3
Manchester United
0
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
3
AC Milan
0
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
2
Sunderland
0
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
3
Sturm Graz
0
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
1
Chelsea
5
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
0
Liverpool
1
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
2
Real Sociedad
1
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
2
Newcastle
2
Premier League 2026-2027
Bournemouth
1
Manchester City
2
