Form and context

AC Milan host Inter at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday evening in the first Derby della Madonnina of the Serie A season. Milan are trying to respond after a heavy home defeat to Bologna, which left them seven points behind Inter. Inter arrive on a strong run in all competitions, including a 2-0 win at Venezia last time out.

Team news

• AC Milan: Mario Gila, Adrien Rabiot and Diego Moreira have returned to full training and are expected to be available, though reports differ on Rabiot, with one source calling his return unlikely. Fikayo Tomori is set to miss out after picking up an injury against Bologna, and Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Samuel Chukwueze are also unavailable.
• Inter: None of Inter's five injured players (Lautaro, Stones, Pavard, Jones and Luis Henrique) will recover in time for the derby.

What the numbers say

• Milan's last five in all competitions: a 4-2 home loss to Bologna, a 2-0 win at Udinese, a 3-0 loss at Bournemouth, a 3-2 win over Atalanta and a 4-0 win at Red Bull Salzburg.
• Inter's last five in all competitions: a 2-0 win at Venezia, a 2-1 win over Fiorentina, a 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk, a 3-1 win at Bologna and a 4-3 loss to Club Brugge.
• Inter average 2.5 goals scored per match across their last 10 in all competitions, compared with 1.8 for Milan; both sides average 1.5 conceded.
• Milan have won three of the last four meetings, including both league derbies last season, while Inter won the two before that run.

Our view

Milan's injury list is long, but the possible returns of Gila, Rabiot and Moreira would restore some structure. Inter are missing key men of their own and have been the more productive attack recently, so this looks tight.

Most likely outcome: draw - both teams have fitness concerns and recent derbies have been close.