Form and context

Atalanta have drawn their last two in all competitions, 2-2 at Fiorentina and 4-4 at home to Frosinone, and have conceded heavily across a busy run. Parma have scored just once in their last four in all competitions, a 2-1 loss at Lazio, and were beaten 3-0 at home by Torino. This is the tenth round of Serie A, played on Monday night at the New Balance Arena.

Team news

• Atalanta: Maurizio Sarri is without ten injured players, including Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac, Kessie, Pompei, Raspadori, Scamacca, Bellanova, Kristensen and Gaetano. Kristensen and Gaetano both picked up muscle problems at Fiorentina and will miss the Parma game, with a return likely after the international break. Raspadori, Kessie, Scamacca, Hien and Kolasinac have resumed individual work on the pitch, while Gaetano, Bellanova and Kristensen are on therapy only. In defence Zappacosta, Scalvini, Obric and Bernasconi are expected; Pasalic should partner Ederson, with Krstovic central and De Ketelaere behind. Two of Zalewski, Rowe and Elmas are favoured for the remaining attacking spots, with Samardzic and Sulemana likely on the bench.
• Parma: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Atalanta average 1.7 goals for and 1.9 against across their last 10 in all competitions.
• Parma average 0.5 goals for and 1.7 against across their last 10 in all competitions.
• Atalanta won the most recent meeting 4-0 in January 2026; the last five also include a draw and a Parma win.
• The prediction model gives Atalanta 45% and the draw 45%, with Parma at 10%.

Our view

Atalanta are stretched thin, but Parma's recent scoring record is very poor and they arrive with little attacking output behind them. The hosts should control the ball, though their defensive record means a clean sheet is far from certain.

Most likely outcome: home win - Atalanta's attacking edge against a Parma side averaging half a goal per game.