Form and context

Sassuolo are in a difficult run and have not won since early September, when they beat Juventus 3-2, and they have conceded 12 goals in their last three matches. Fiorentina picked up another league point with a 2-2 draw against Atalanta and remain in the group just above bottom-placed Venezia. Both sides are searching for consistency, and Sassuolo coach Alberto Aquilani faces the club where he spent an important part of his playing and coaching career.

Team news

• Sassuolo: Thorstvedt is suspended. Jay Idzes, Sebastian Walukiewicz and Fali Candé have overcome their respective physical problems and are all in contention to start, with Idzes the strongest candidate to return from the first minute. Bakola, Matic and Adzic are expected in midfield.
• Fiorentina: Parisi and Pongracic remain unavailable, with Pongracic expected back only after the international break. There is timid optimism over Ranieri, who could at least be in the squad after a nerve problem in his foot. Atta is being assessed and there is hope he can recover before the break. Oulai could come in and give Fagioli a rest.

What the numbers say

• Sassuolo have conceded 22 goals in nine league games, an average above two per match.
• In all competitions, Sassuolo's last five matches brought four defeats and one draw, including a 6-2 home loss to Lazio.
• Fiorentina's last five in all competitions produced three defeats and two draws, including a 2-2 with Atalanta.
• The last head-to-head was a 0-0 draw, and Sassuolo won the meeting before that 3-1.

Our view

Sassuolo's defensive record is the standout concern, and the possible returns of Idzes, Walukiewicz and Candé give Aquilani more options at the back. Fiorentina have their own absences and doubts, with Ranieri and Atta still to be assessed. Given both teams' recent results, a tight, low-margin game looks likely.

Most likely outcome: draw - both sides are short of wins and the last head-to-head ended level.