Leon vs Toluca
A. Alvarado
12'
F. Vinas
44'
Predictions
|
Probability %
1
x
2
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Leon
Toluca
|
Probability %
1
x
2
24%
24%
51%
|
Pred
2
|
Avg. Goal
3.29
|
Score Pred.
0-3
|
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Leon
Toluca
|
Probability %
Under
/
Over
2.5
36%
64%
|
Pred
Over
|
Avg. Goal
3.29
|
Score Pred.
0-3
|
| HТ/FT Probability % | HT Pred. | FT Pred. | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Leon
Toluca
|
HТ/FT Probability %
29%
|
HT Pred.
2
|
FT Pred.
2
|
Score Pred.
0-3
|
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
|
Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Leon
Toluca
|
Probability %
Yes/
No
65%
35%
|
Pred
Yes
|
Avg. Goal
3.29
|
Score Pred.
0-3
|
| Probability % | Pred. | Avg. Goal | Score Pred. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Leon
Toluca
|
Probability %
51%
|
Pred
Away -0.5
|
Avg. Goal
3.29
|
Score Pred.
0-3
|
Double chance : Leon or draw
Form and context
Leon head into this Liga MX 2026-2027 fixture on the back of a 2-0 win at Tigres UANL in all competitions, though that followed a 3-5 home defeat to Club America. Toluca have drawn their last two in all competitions, 2-2 with Club Tijuana and 1-1 with Atletico San Luis, and have not won in their last five outings.
Team news
- Leon: No confirmed team news yet.
- Toluca: No confirmed team news yet.
What the numbers say
- Leon have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Toluca have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Toluca have won three of the last eight head-to-head meetings, including a 4-1 victory in April 2026; Leon have won one, and three ended level.
- The prediction model gives the draw and the away win 45% each, with a home win at 10%.
Our view
Toluca carry the stronger attacking record of the two sides and a clear edge in recent head-to-head history, but their run of draws shows they are not closing games out comfortably. Leon's form is mixed, with a good away win at Tigres balanced by a heavy home loss to Club America.
Most likely outcome: draw - Toluca's scoring output and head-to-head record point their way, but their recent run of stalemates and Leon's home record make a share of the points the likeliest result.
Last Updated: 22 Oct 2026 11:31 PM
Substitutes for Leon 
D. Cambindo
45' Out:
45
45' Out: A. Alvarado
45
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
' Out: E. Guerra
62
J. Cortizo
' Out: Fernando Beltrán
63
J. Lara
' Out: D. Arcila
75
Substitutes for Toluca
A. Vega
63' Out: Helinho
63
N. Castro
' Out: P. Perez
63
Paulinho
75' Out: F. Vinas
75
J. Angulo
' Out:
86
REFEREE
F. Hernandez Gomez
- Leon host Toluca in Liga MX 2026-2027, kicking off at 23:00 GMT.
- Leon enter in strong form with back-to-back wins, scoring five in their last away outing.
- Toluca are unbeaten in their last two but have drawn three of their last five matches.
- Recent H2H history favors Toluca heavily, with a 85% edge in head-to-head comparison stats.
- The last meeting ended 4-1 in Toluca's favor - a warning sign for Leon.
- Four of the last six H2H clashes have been decided by two or more goals or ended level.
- Toluca average more goals per game (1.72) than Leon (1.30) this season.
- Both sides average around 13 shots per match, suggesting an open contest.
- Possession stats are nearly identical: Leon 53.69% vs Toluca 54.33%.
- Prediction model gives a 45% chance of a draw and 45% for a Toluca win, just 10% for Leon.
- Recommended bet: Double Chance Draw/Away at odds of 1.36 with Bet365.
- Toluca carry a significant H2H advantage (85% vs 15%) despite Leon's better recent form.
Total
Per Match
63
Corners
69
144
Fouls
182
36
Offsides
26
196
Shots
204
69
Shots on Goal
74
30
Yellow Cards
32
4
Red Cards
3
21
Goals
28
28
Goals Conceded
21
3
Clean Sheets
3
Last matches for LEO 
Liga MX 2026-2027
24 OCT, 2026
Leon
1
Toluca
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
21 OCT, 2026
Leon
2
Tigres UANL
0
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
18 OCT, 2026
Leon
3
Club America
5
L
Liga MX 2026-2027
10 OCT, 2026
Leon
1
Puebla
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
28 SEP, 2026
Leon
2
FC Juarez
1
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
21 SEP, 2026
Leon
1
Club Queretaro
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
15 SEP, 2026
Leon
2
Atletico San Luis
0
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
11 SEP, 2026
Leon
1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
L
Liga MX 2026-2027
29 AUG, 2026
Leon
1
Atlante FC
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
22 AUG, 2026
Leon
2
Monterrey
0
W
Last matches for TOL
Liga MX 2026-2027
24 OCT, 2026
Toluca
1
Leon
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
22 OCT, 2026
Toluca
2
Club Tijuana
2
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
18 OCT, 2026
Toluca
1
Atletico San Luis
1
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
10 OCT, 2026
Toluca
2
Tigres UANL
3
L
Liga MX 2026-2027
26 SEP, 2026
Toluca
3
Cruz Azul
3
D
Liga MX 2026-2027
21 SEP, 2026
Toluca
2
Santos Laguna
3
L
Liga MX 2026-2027
16 SEP, 2026
Toluca
1
Puebla
0
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
12 SEP, 2026
Toluca
5
Atlas
2
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
31 AUG, 2026
Toluca
4
FC Juarez
0
W
Liga MX 2026-2027
22 AUG, 2026
Toluca
2
Club Queretaro
1
W
#
Team
PL
W
D
L
GD
PTS
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
HIGHEST ODDS
3.99
Pinnacle
4.00
Betfair
1.91
Dafabet
97.64 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
Pinnacle
3.99
3.86
1.90
96.52%
Bet365
3.90
3.90
1.85
94.93%
Betano
3.75
3.80
1.88
94.19%
Dafabet
3.75
3.90
1.91
95.54%
1xBet
Bonus
3.73
3.70
1.85
92.69%
HIGHEST ODDS
4.22
1xBet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
97.26 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
4.22
2.31
2.33
90.99%
Pinnacle
4.15
2.67
2.36
96.23%
Marathonbet
4.10
2.31
2.31
90.11%
Bet365
4.00
2.50
2.30
92.18%
Betano
3.90
2.40
2.40
91.76%
HIGHEST ODDS
3.69
1xBet
2.82
Betano
2.25
William Hill
93.45 %
BOOKMAKERS
HOME
DRAW
AWAY
PAYOUTS
1xBet
Bonus
3.69
2.81
2.11
90.84%
Marathonbet
3.60
2.81
2.09
89.92%
Betano
3.60
2.82
2.12
90.57%
Bet365
3.50
2.75
2.20
90.59%
William Hill
3.40
2.60
2.25
89.03%
