Form and context

Palmeiras host Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores semi-final second leg on Wednesday, with the tie set to decide the first finalist of the 2026 edition. Palmeiras won the first leg 2-1 and need only a draw to advance, while Fluminense must win by one goal to force a penalty shootout or by two to progress outright. Palmeiras are chasing a second consecutive final after losing the 2025 showpiece to Flamengo, while Fluminense are aiming for their third final.

Team news

• Palmeiras: No confirmed team news yet.
• Fluminense: No confirmed team news yet.

What the numbers say

• Palmeiras are unbeaten against Brazilian opposition at home in Libertadores knockout matches, having won or drawn 21 of their 23 such fixtures at the Nubank Parque.
• Palmeiras have progressed from 12 of the 13 Libertadores ties in which they won the first leg away from home.
• Fluminense have won just two of their eight Libertadores away matches against Brazilian opponents.
• In the first leg, Fluminense recorded 70.2% possession and completed 192 passes in the final third, the highest figure by any team in a semi-final or final since Opta records began in 2013, but only three of their 11 shots were on target.

Our view

Palmeiras arrive with a narrow lead and a strong home record in Libertadores knockout ties, and their first-leg defensive display - winning 67.7% of aerial duels - kept Fluminense's possession from turning into clear chances. Fluminense showed they can dominate the ball, but they now need a result in São Paulo against a side that has never lost there to Brazilian opposition in the knockout stage.

Most likely outcome: home win - Palmeiras' first-leg advantage and unbeaten home knockout record against Brazilian clubs point to them closing out the tie.